As we eagerly await the start of Game 1 of the National League Division Series this Saturday at Citizens Bank Park, it’s worth revisiting some widely accepted beliefs about the postseason.
**Conventional Wisdom No. 1:** Division winners with byes (Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Guardians) are at a disadvantage due to the five-day layoff between the regular season and their first postseason game, which can disrupt their momentum.
**Is this really true?** Evidence suggests it might be. Since baseball expanded the playoffs two years ago, five teams that won at least 100 regular season games (the 2022 and 2023 Braves, 2022 and 2023 Dodgers, and 2023 Orioles) failed to advance beyond the Division Series. These teams didn’t just lose — they were dominated, going a combined 3-15 without pushing any series to its limit.
The exception to this trend has been the Houston Astros, who won 106 regular season games in 2022, earned a bye, and went on to win the World Series. However, last season, even they fell short, losing in the ALCS. Interestingly, of the four teams that have made it to the World Series in this expanded playoff era, three (including the Rangers, who beat the Diamondbacks last year) were wild card entrants.
**What does this mean for the Phillies?** The Phillies have thrived in recent seasons after entering the playoffs through the wild card, reaching the World Series in 2022 and coming just one home win shy of returning last year. Yet, this season, manager Rob Thomson set his sights on winning the NL East and securing a record strong enough to bypass the wild card round. With that mission accomplished, the Phillies now have home-field advantage in both the Division Series and potentially the World Series, should they advance that far. They might also gain the same advantage in the NLCS if the Dodgers make another early exit.
This home advantage could be pivotal: The Phillies had a league-best home record of 54-26 (.675) at Citizens Bank Park this season. However, their road performance was far less impressive, going 41-41 — the only remaining playoff team without a winning away record.
**Conventional Wisdom No. 2:** Teams that finish the regular season hot tend to stay hot in the playoffs, while cold teams get an early vacation.
**Is this really a thing?** History shows that momentum can indeed carry a team. One famous example is the 2004 Red Sox, who, after losing the first three games of the ALCS to the Yankees, staged an incredible comeback and went on to sweep the Cardinals in the World Series. Conversely, the 2007 Phillies, despite winning 102 games, lost 9 of their final 14 regular season games and were quickly bounced from the playoffs in the first round by the Cardinals.
**How does this affect the Phillies?** Phillies legend Larry Bowa has a favorite saying: “You can’t flip the switch.” Yet, that’s exactly what the Phillies need to do. They are the only National League team left with a losing record (4-6) over their last 10 games, and since July 1, they’ve barely managed a .500 record (40-38). While past performance doesn’t always dictate future results, the team is healthy and has been known for streaky play. Still, unless they get hot fast, their season could end without delivering the World Series trophy back to owner John Middleton.
**Conventional Wisdom No. 3:** In the postseason, it’s all about pitching, pitching, and pitching.
**Is that true?** This theory holds weight. Come playoff time, No. 5 starters are benched, and even some No. 4 starters may not see regular action. With the stakes so high, managers often have quick hooks, making a deep and reliable bullpen even more critical.
**What does this mean for the Phillies?** At their peak, the Phillies’ top three pitchers — Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Aaron Nola — can go toe-to-toe with any team. However, despite Wheeler’s Cy Young-caliber season, he has had some rough outings, surrendering eight, seven, and six earned runs in three different starts this year. Sanchez, while impressive, has limited postseason experience, and Nola’s September struggles (4.91 ERA) are a concern.
The bullpen, however, is deep, with manager Thomson confident in arms like Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Carlos Estevez, Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, and Jose Ruiz in high-leverage situations. Yet, as Thomson himself has acknowledged, the more frequently he calls on his bullpen, the greater the chance one pitcher might falter on a given day.
Of course, all of this analysis could go out the window once the first pitch is thrown Saturday.