Saturday night’s big match at the MCG between Essendon and Geelong could serve as a significant test for Essendon in the 2024 season. Essendon, currently third on the ladder under coach Brad Scott, is ahead of Collingwood by half a game but has faced criticism for being more of a pretender than a contender.
Despite the dominance of ladder-leaders Sydney and Carlton, Essendon has an opportunity to assert themselves as a strong team with a win against seventh-placed Geelong. On Fox Footy’s First Crack Preview, St Kilda great Leigh Montagna analyzed the performance of top-eight teams, noting that only Sydney and Carlton have winning records against other top-eight teams.
Montagna highlighted Essendon’s poor win-loss record against top-eight teams this year, suggesting that the upcoming game against Geelong is their biggest test yet. He emphasized the importance of this game for Essendon, who have faced doubts about their true capabilities despite their current ranking.
Montagna said, “Sometimes there are home-and-away games that mean more than others – statement games – and I think that is absolutely the case for Essendon on Saturday night against the Cats. There’s a lot of talk about the Bombers sitting third on the ladder, and there are still a lot of doubters about where they’re at and who they’ve actually beaten.”
Sydney has won all seven of their matches against top-eight teams, while Carlton has a 5-3 record. Essendon, however, is 1-3-1 against top-eight teams, making this game crucial for proving their strength and maintaining their top-four position.
Essendon’s six points against top-eight teams this season include a draw against Collingwood and a win against GWS, with three losses in other matches. With the advantage of not having to travel outside Victoria until the last game of the season, Essendon is well-positioned to capitalize on their current standing.
Beyond their push for the finals, Saturday night’s game also features a personal rivalry between coaches Brad Scott of Essendon and his brother Chris Scott of Geelong. Geelong has dominated Essendon in recent years, winning their last six meetings by an average of 52 points and 18 of the last 21 matches overall.
Montagna continued, “The other big factor why I think this is a statement game for the Essendon Football Club is sometimes you have to stand up and stare your bully down, and go past them – because Geelong have owned Essendon in recent times. They have beaten them the last six times by an average of 52 points; in fact, they’ve beaten them 18 of the last 21 matches, so they have bullied this Essendon Football Club for a long time. Right now, for this football club to continue on their development and their progression to be a finals team and win a final – they’ve got to stand down their bully, who are on their knees, let’s be fair – Geelong are in all sorts of trouble with their confidence and their footy at the moment. They will not get a better look to just go straight past Geelong … I’m looking forward to this game, it’ll be massive and I think Essendon should be very confident.”
Show host and six-time All-Australian Bulldog Brad Johnson noted that a win over the Cats would set Essendon up for a strong finish to the season, given their favorable schedule. “It sets them up for their run home; all the talk is that they only travel once more, and that’s in Round 24 to the Gabba, so this sets up a period of the season which may allow them to finish in the top four and have a real crack at a premiership,” said Johnson.
Montagna added, “I’ll be very disappointed if they allow this Cats team, with the way they’re playing, to beat up on them and beat them again, so I think they should win.”
Essendon has been boosted by the inclusion of veteran ruck Todd Goldstein and recruit Jade Gresham, replacing the omitted Nate Caddy and Jye Menzie. Geelong, on the other hand, will miss Tom Hawkins due to a foot issue, but young forward Shannon Neale will get another chance at the top level. Joining Hawkins on the sidelines are Ollie Henry (injured) and Oisin Mullin (omitted), with Lawson Humphries making his debut alongside 11-gamer Mitch Knevitt.
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