At 1:08 pm, it was reported that Justin Wilson’s new deal with the Red Sox will earn him $2.25 million, with additional incentives of up to $750,000 available based on the number of games he pitches. Earlier, at 11:49 am, FanSided’s Robert Murray announced on X that the Red Sox and left-handed reliever Justin Wilson had come to an agreement. Rob Bradford from WEEI.com added that the deal is a one-year, major league contract, similar in structure to Wilson’s 2024 contract with the Reds, where he earned $1.5 million with up to $1 million in incentives. Represented by ACES, Wilson, now 37, brings a wealth of experience to Boston, though recent seasons have seen him battling injuries. Last year, after returning from Tommy John surgery, he logged 46 2/3 innings for the Cincinnati Reds but struggled with a high 5.59 ERA, in part due to unfavorable ballpark factors at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, where seven of his ten home runs allowed were hit. Statcast’s Park Factors rates Cincinnati as the most homer-friendly stadium over the last three seasons, while Fenway Park sits around the middle at No. 16.
While Wilson’s overall ERA was not ideal, his peripheral statistics paint a more optimistic picture. His strikeout rate of 24.4% and walk rate of 6.2% both surpassed the league averages, and his velocity was strong, with his four-seam fastball averaging 95.5 mph, second only to his peak of 95.9 mph in 2017. His cutter velocity also reached a career-high of 92.3 mph. Advanced metrics like xFIP (3.99) and SIERA (3.41), which account for normalized home-run rates, suggest Wilson could be poised for a strong comeback in 2025 if he maintains his 2024 pace.
Between 2015 and 2020, Wilson was one of the most reliable left-handed relievers, appearing in 344 games and pitching 291 innings with a solid 3.41 ERA for teams like the Yankees, Tigers, Cubs, and Mets. During that period, he boasted a 28.2% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate, both impressive figures. His performance with the Reds in 2024 showed improved command, while his swing-and-miss abilities remained intact. Over his 12-season career, Wilson has accumulated 142 holds and 20 saves, proving his capability in high-leverage situations.
This offseason, the Red Sox faced limited options for left-handed bullpen arms, with Brennan Bernardino as the only established lefty reliever projected for the 2025 roster. While southpaws Bailey Horn, Cam Booser, and Chris Murphy are also on the 40-man roster, Murphy’s Tommy John surgery last year will keep him off the mound for Opening Day, and Horn and Booser have minimal MLB experience. Wilson’s addition provides manager Alex Cora with a proven veteran capable of recording strikeouts and, if he can regain his pre-surgery performance levels, offers Boston a potential leverage arm at a relatively low cost.
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