How is the 2023–24 AC Milan season going so far? It all relies, of course, on perspective and whether the individual in question decides to adopt an optimistic, realistic, or pessimistic outlook—just like with many things in football.
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Let’s begin with the facts: Milan, who presently sit second in the league, has little chance of overtaking Inter in the Scudetto race; they were eliminated from the Champions League at the group stage and the Coppa Italia in the quarterfinals.
With a deep run in the Europa League, where Roma awaits in the quarterfinals and the likes of Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen may follow, the Rossoneri are now hoping to escape another trophy-less season.
But if we dig a little deeper, we can uncover some trends that, depending on how you choose to interpret them, could give things a different meaning.
The details
A team’s point total in the league is the most fundamental and evident indicator of their success because, over the course of a 38-game season, the table is unreliable.
This is where the first intriguing statistic enters the picture: Milan has accumulated 62 points after 29 Serie A games this season, and they have only amassed more (63) in the 2021–22 Scudetto-winning campaign.
In 2020–21, the total was 60 points in Pioli’s first full season, whereas the Rossoneri were on 52 points at this point last season—a full 10 points less, to be sure, after a terrible January and February.
The most pessimistic supporters may legitimately draw attention to the fact that Milan is currently 14 points behind their local rivals Inter, who are cruising to a second star. But as has been said many times before, they are moving at a rate that requires some adjusting.
As focus shifted to the battle for second place, the Diavolo found themselves seven points behind Juventus two months ago, but starting in late January, Max Allegri’s team started to slip away.
Juve started to watch Inter’s back as Pioli and his team caught up and, most recently, passed them. Inter is currently ranked +17 and has progressively lost contact with Juve.
The difference is three points, and the outcome of the rematch at the Allianz Stadium will significantly impact who finishes as Inter’s runners-up, which does have some financial motivation.
Let me conclude by saying that Milan, with 17 points from their past eight games, is one of the league’s most in-form teams right now. The only teams who performed better were Simone’s Inter(22), Thiago Motta’s Bologna(22), and Daniele De Rossi’s revitalized Roma (19 points).
The wounds
What was the primary cause of the Scudetto challenge’s derailment prior to the end of the season, and why has Milan been unable to maintain this incredible pace throughout the entire campaign?
Of course, there are a number of contributing variables, including the remarkable pace of the Nerazzurri, the incapacity to rotate well, and a decline in the overall effectiveness of outstanding players like Mike Maignan, Rafael Leao, and Theo Hernandez.
Above all, the Rossoneri’s defensive record has simply not been good enough, which Pioli has pointed out as being more on the side of causation than correlation. We’ll talk more about that in particular soon.
Injuries
Consequently, what is the primary cause of Milan’s inability to maintain this remarkable pace throughout the season, and why did the Scudetto challenge implode prior to the year’s conclusion?
Naturally, there are numerous contributing elements, such as the decline in the overall effectiveness of elite players like Mike Maignan, Rafael Leao, and Theo Hernandez, as well as the Nerazzurri’s remarkable speed.
Out of all of this, Pioli has pointed out that the Rossoneri’s defensive record has just not been good enough, which is more evidence of cause than correlation. Regarding that specifically, more is to come.
With their ligament injuries, Thiaw, Tomori, and Kjaer have missed nearly a third of the season, and Kalulu’s 29 games missed will rise by a few more. In some ways, the Frenchman’s tale is representative because, despite missing four months, he had an injury shortly after returning.
Having all of the starters available at Milanello during the break—aside from Theo—should aid in further refining the processes following a March in which the team’s goal total—five goals allowed across five games, or an average of one goal per game—went against the trend.
The objectives
The larger subject of goals is significant since the number of goals scored and given up each provides insight into specific periods of the season’s performance, which when combined, accurately depicts the team’s position.
Milan, who have scored 55 goals at an average of 1.9 per game this season in Serie A, will find this to be a perfect fit. They now tie Roma for the second-best attack in the league as a result.
They have, meanwhile, also given up 33 goals. The only teams that have shipped more than that are Monza in 10th place (36) and Roma in fifth place (35) with Milan having the worst defensive record of the top four.
It’s simple to understand why none of the other top five teams—five of which will probably qualify for the Champions League this time—have been able to seriously challenge Inter.
For instance, Roma and Milan both have a lot of goals but an excessive amount of goals allowed. Juventus and Bologna both have strong defensive records; they have scored 42 goals and let up 25 goals, respectively.
Inter has scored 71 goals and allowed 14 goals; we swear this is the last time we discuss them. They possess the greatest defense and offensive by a significant margin.
Balance is necessary, as Milan’s 2021–22 Scudetto demonstrated, but defenses typically win titles since it is not sustainable to need three or four goals to win games—however pleasant it is when you can accomplish it.
The agreements
The summer transfer window for Milan in 2022 turned out to be a nightmare, as has already been well reported. After the Scudetto victory, what should have been a fine-tuning became something that most likely contributed significantly to the dismissals of Ricky Massara and Paolo Maldini.
Divock Origi was supposed to rival Olivier Giroud, but he ended up with just two goals and an assist. Though he only received one assist, Charles De Ketelaere was predicted to be the future’s creative force in the playmaker role.
To leave a total of zero goals, Sergino Dest was a complete bust, Malick Thiaw showed promise but is a center-back, and Aster Vranckx had the lone other goal contribution (an assist).
Thus far in 2023–24, the Rossoneri’s summer additions have contributed 57 goals. You read correctly: fifty-seven. 40 goals, or exactly 51.9 percent, of Milan’s 77 goals this season (in all competitions) came from them.
Pulisic (12), Loftus-Cheek (9), Jovic (8), Okafor (5), Reijnders (3), Chukwueze (3)—that is the goal breakdown. Helpers: Loftus-Cheek 1, Chukwueze 1, Reijnders 3, Okafor 2, Jovic 1, Pulisic 8, Musah 1.
The victory on Sunday in Verona was somewhat symbolic. Prior to Christian Pulisic and Samuel Chukwueze, who both signed last summer to battle for the same slot, scoring a goal each, Theo Hernandez opened the score.
Even the highly productive players who come off the bench, such as Luka Jovic (eight goals at one every 121 minutes) and Noah Okafor (five goals at one per 155 minutes), deserve their own article because they are the €36 million “Blues Brothers.”
In summary
What are the fans to make of all of this? Anything they choose, as that is their right. It does, however, offer an intriguing counterbalance: Milan is progressing in the league at a rate that, in most other seasons, would have them challenging for the championship, even though they have certain glaring weaknesses.
The ten new recruits have generally adapted well to playing in Italy, which is a benefit considering how many of them are foreign-born. However, the injury issue remains unresolved and has led to some of the problems.
It seems like the Europa League will determine a lot. The only trophy that the Rossoneri are lacking from their presentation in Dublin would be lifted if they