CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFF FINAL – LEEDS vs SOUTHAMPTON: The final spot in the 2024-25 Premier League will be determined at Wembley on Sunday afternoon.
You’re familiar with all the clichés by now. The most lucrative game in world football and all that.
Leeds and Southampton have been in the Premier League before, and not too long ago. Therefore, Sunday’s Championship play-off final is as much about rectifying past mistakes as it is about reaching some sort of promised land.
Both sides showcased superb football throughout the Championship season, including their semi-final victories over Norwich and West Brom. However, who will gain the upper hand at Wembley on Sunday?
We consulted a couple of our resident experts on both teams to get their thoughts ahead of the game.
Sam Meade – Leeds United
Leeds reignited their momentum against Norwich at Elland Road, significantly boosting their outlook as they approach the final at Wembley. They delivered their best performance, and while Norwich may not be formidable opponents, Leeds will back themselves to beat anyone if they play like that.
Though Southampton’s double over Leeds will be highlighted, playing at Wembley will neutralize much of that narrative. On balance, the Saints might play more attractive football, but Leeds boasts more outright match winners.
Leeds will need their star players to step up. If they do, they’ll be confident of securing the victory. With a frontline featuring Crysencio Summerville, Georginio Rutter, and Willy Gnonto, Leeds only needs one of these players to hit top gear to win, given their individual talents.
Defensively, Leeds will feel secure, especially with their solid center-halves. Illan Meslier’s crucial saves in the play-offs have boosted his confidence. I anticipate a low-scoring affair, which might favor Leeds, as they often need just a moment of magic to win. Archie Gray and Ilia Gruev, likely to start in midfield, will be crucial in disrupting Southampton’s effective play, as seen in their win at Elland Road on the final day of the season.
Both teams must acknowledge their opponents’ strengths and incorporate strategies to counter them. After that, the game will likely hinge on a big moment from a key player, and that’s why Leeds believes they can edge out Sunday’s showdown.
Felix Keith – Southampton
Anyone following the Championship knows exactly how Southampton will play at Wembley on Sunday. Russell Martin has spent all season emphasizing his football philosophy and won’t alter it now; the play-off final will test its effectiveness.
Southampton averaged 66.1% possession—the highest in the Championship and 8% more than Leeds, who ranked third. They will likely dominate possession at Wembley and hope their two victories over Leeds this season give them an edge.
To win, Southampton must avoid costly mistakes. This season, they’ve repeatedly lost possession in dangerous areas while trying to play out from the back, resulting in sloppy goals. They’re not going to resort to long balls; instead, they need to stay confident and precise while navigating Leeds’ press. This risk-reward strategy could be decisive. Gavin Bazunu’s Achilles tendon rupture last month complicates matters, but Alex McCarthy has been a reliable replacement, particularly in the first leg of the semi-final against West Brom.
Southampton hopes to have Che Adams fit after he missed the second leg against West Brom, but Adam Armstrong remains key up front. Armstrong has scored 23 goals and provided 13 assists in 48 Championship games, with three goals in two games against Leeds this season. If Adams can start at No. 9, Armstrong can move to the flanks, where he’s more effective.
Martin will rely on the exceptional Kyle Walker-Peters to challenge Leeds down the right flank and Will Smallbone to make his trademark late runs into the box from midfield. If Smallbone and Flynn Downes can provide a solid platform, Southampton will have a strong chance of returning to the Premier League at the first attempt.