During the past offseason, Boston Red Sox fans were primarily focused on the team’s pitching needs. The front office had hinted at the possibility of acquiring Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Jordan Montgomery seemed almost certain to join the team. The Red Sox had long struggled in the pitching department, and with a promising group of young players in the upper minors, it seemed like the perfect time to strengthen their pitching staff.
However, the biggest offseason signing was Lucas Giolito, a reclamation project, which left many fans disappointed. Additionally, the acquisition of Cooper Criswell was met with skepticism and became the subject of jokes aimed at the team’s management.
The expected rotation included Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, and Tanner Houck. This lineup appeared insufficient to elevate the Red Sox from the bottom of the standings, and early in the season, Giolito, Pivetta, and Bello all ended up on the injured list.
Fast-forward to a quarter of the way through the season, and the Red Sox pitching staff has exceeded expectations more than any other in baseball. Despite this, the team is in third place in the American League East with a .500 winning percentage after 44 games. To avoid squandering their stellar pitching, the Red Sox’s offense needs to improve quickly.
Despite lacking big names and dealing with injuries, the Red Sox starters have performed exceptionally well. They lead the league in starter ERA at 2.62, are third in WHIP at 1.07, and have allowed the fourth-fewest hard-hit balls. They also rank in the top ten for K/BB ratio. This success is largely attributed to Tanner Houck, who has emerged as a top-tier starter with a 2.17 ERA and leading the league in fWAR. Kutter Crawford has also been impressive, ranking second in fWAR and 11th in ERA among starters.
Depth players have also contributed significantly. Even Cooper Criswell, initially doubted by fans, has posted a solid 2.76 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an 8.6 K/9. As Bello and Pivetta return to the rotation, the Red Sox pitching strength is expected to grow even more.
Despite the outstanding pitching, the Red Sox’s position players have struggled both offensively and defensively. The team is tied for last in fielding percentage and has committed the most errors, leading to the most unearned runs allowed. They also lack defensive range, with only Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu having positive Fielding Run Values. Offensively, the team has the third-worst strikeout rate in baseball and struggles with runners in scoring position, ranking 24th in batting average and 27th in WRC+ in such situations. Their .308 BABIP suggests they’ve been lucky, and this could regress over a full season.
Looking ahead to 2024, young players like Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran offer some offensive promise. The return of Tristan Casas and the hope that Vaughn Grissom can improve his hitting could provide additional optimism. If the pitching staff continues its dominant performance, the Red Sox could compete with any team in the league. It’s now up to the position players to support their pitchers and help the team reach its full potential.