Max Fried, a standout pitcher for the Atlanta Braves, emerges as one of the most intriguing players in the 2024 season. Renowned for his remarkable performance on the field, Fried boasts an impressive career record of 62 wins and 26 losses, equating to a win percentage of .705.
With an exceptional ERA of 3.03 and nearly equal strikeouts to innings pitched ratio, he has quietly established himself as one of the premier pitchers under 30 in the National League. As he approaches his first significant free agency period in 2025, Fried’s statistics and trajectory are drawing comparisons to Blake Snell, the 2023 NL Cy Young award winner.
Throughout previous seasons, Fried has consistently delivered exceptional performances, showcasing his resilience and skill. Despite contending with injuries during the 2023 season, Fried maintained an outstanding 8-1 record with an impressive 2.55 ERA. His ability to overcome challenges underscores his resilience and determination, qualities that are expected to be invaluable in the upcoming season.
What should we anticipate from Fried in 2024?
Forecasted as the Braves’ second-in-command in the pitching rotation, trailing the rapidly rising star Spencer Strider, Max Fried anticipates his finest season yet. Benefitting from robust health and the support of a formidable lineup, Fried stands poised to receive unparalleled backing in runs. There’s ample justification to anticipate Fried clinching 20 victories without much doubt.
According to Fangraphs ZIPs projections, Fried is slated to kick off 32 games this season. Given his historical average of .705, it’s logical to envisage him reaching the 20-win milestone this year. His previous best was 17 wins back in 2019, hence, if he manages to stay injury-free, 2024 is primed to mark the pinnacle of his career in terms of single-season victories.
Projections peg Fried’s ERA at 3.15 across 177 innings in 2024. However, spanning the last 44 starts over two seasons, he’s maintained an impressive 2.51 ERA, putting him in league with the likes of Jacob DeGrom and Shohei Ohtani for efficiency. As he approaches free agency, Fried aims to sustain this 2.50 benchmark throughout 2024.
Considering his career average of 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings and an expected workload of 177 innings this season, one could anticipate approximately 160 strikeouts. Betting on the over seems prudent; for Fried, this season represents a golden opportunity to secure a lucrative contract and substantial earnings.
Fried is unlikely to remain with the Braves beyond 2024.
The Braves have a tendency to avoid overpaying players whose prime years are behind them, and this scenario may unfold if Fried performs as anticipated and the Braves secure the NL title. Consequently, they are likely to allow Fried to depart at the conclusion of this season, a move beneficial for both Fried and the Braves organization. Fried stands to land a substantial contract elsewhere, while the Braves will have extracted the best from a 30-year-old pitcher.
Given Fried’s ties to the West Coast, there is speculation about a potential return to his roots. Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, and San Diego Padres could be contenders for his signature should he opt to leave the Braves.
However, teams from Texas or the Arizona Diamondbacks cannot be discounted as potential landing spots. This speculation adds an intriguing dimension to the upcoming season, as Fried’s performances could attract interest from these teams.
One certainty remains: if Fried mirrors a Blake Snell-like performance this season, he will emerge as the most coveted free agent on the market, likely commanding a salary upwards of $30 million per year. This serves as ample motivation for the Braves to get the best out of him.