Here’s an unusual thought: playing a Premier League match at Arsenal’s home ground with a 3 pm kickoff on a Saturday. What a refreshing change! It means I can leisurely drive to North London, park at my friend’s house, enjoy a relaxing pint at the pub, and stroll over to the stadium without feeling rushed. Sadly, in these TV-dominated times, this scenario is becoming rarer. Midnight kickoffs to cater to the U.S. audience seem to be the future, so we might as well savor this moment while we still can.
As for Leicester City, famously known as the Foxes (though the reason for this nickname remains a mystery), they’ve been a club that has often skirted the rules when it comes to tackles, fouls, cards, and penalties. We once revealed some of their sly tactics, and it didn’t take long for authorities to clamp down on them. If you missed that exposé, it’s worth checking out. But let’s focus on the present. Now we have Arsenal facing Leicester, with the latter hovering just above the relegation zone. They’ve managed to stay clear of the bottom three thanks to two additional draws and, perhaps more importantly, a significantly better goal difference.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arsenal | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | Leicester City | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Southampton | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
| 19 | Everton | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 |
The reality is that while Arsenal have only scored two more goals than Leicester in their last five matches, Arsenal have been far more solid defensively, conceding five fewer goals. Leicester’s current situation is a far cry from where they were last season, and while we can analyze their average goals, we can’t assess average wins – simply because they haven’t secured any.
In the previous season, Leicester averaged 1.93 goals per game while conceding only 0.89 per match, giving them a goal difference slightly above +1 per game. This season, however, they are averaging 1.2 goals scored per game while conceding 1.8. In other words, they are letting in twice as many goals and scoring only about two-thirds of what they did last season.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester City 2023/4 | 46 | 31 | 4 | 11 | 89 | 41 | 48 | 97 |
| 15 | Leicester City 2024/5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
Arsenal, on the other hand, are averaging 1.6 goals per game in the league while conceding just 0.6 goals. This suggests it could be challenging for their opponents to score, and if Arsenal manage to score, it might only be one goal, potentially due to a stroke of luck.
However, we shouldn’t be too quick to dismiss them. In their previous stint, they spent eight seasons in the Premier League, winning the league once and the cup once—though, as we’ve pointed out, those successes were helped by some favorable refereeing decisions.
Now, let’s take a brief look at some data, and once again, we can’t help but notice West Ham, who seem to be drifting into a world of fouls, barely making the effort to tackle properly!
| Team | Tackles pg | Fouls pg | Yellows for fouls PG |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 15.8 | 16 | 13 |
| Arsenal | 17.8 | 13 | 10 |
| Leicester | 21.6 | 12.6 | 10 |
Right away, something seems a bit off here. This mirrors a trend we noticed a couple of years ago, and although the numbers shifted after we highlighted it, I’m sure it was purely coincidental.
Interestingly, Arsenal are committing 3% more fouls than Leicester, yet both teams are receiving the same number of yellow cards. This implies that despite Arsenal’s roster of top-tier players who are well-acquainted with PGMO referees and the Premier League, they are committing more fouls than Leicester!
It brings us back to this strange reality where it appears Leicester have truly mastered the art of tackling, while Arsenal, despite their world-class defenders, seem unable to keep up. It’s a puzzling scenario.
Let’s now take a step back and compare Leicester City’s performance last season with their current season so far.
| Season | Tackles pg | Fouls pg | Yellows for fouls PG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 16.6 | 10.3 | 2.04 |
| 2024/25 | 21.6 | 12.6 | 2.00 |
This situation is indeed puzzling. Leicester’s level of tackling has increased by 30% this season compared to last, and the number of fouls called against them has gone up by 22%. Yet, despite this, the number of yellow cards they’ve received for fouls has actually decreased!
It leaves one wondering how it’s possible for a team to increase their tackling by 30% while reducing the number of yellow cards in a league that is supposed to have stricter refereeing standards.
Naturally, Leicester are tackling more since they’re playing in the Premier League and now concede 1.6 goals per game, almost double the 0.89 goals they conceded last season. With the higher number of goals conceded, it’s easy to imagine more tackles flying in, but somehow the number of yellow cards has dropped! This contradiction is truly baffling.