Southampton has only one remaining match in the standard Championship season.
With a secured play-off finish, Southampton’s season in the Championship will extend by at least two additional games as they vie for promotion.
This weekend, Russell Martin’s team faces Leeds United in what was anticipated to be a crucial fixture for automatic promotion throughout much of the season. However, Southampton’s current position renders the match essentially inconsequential, though it presents an opportunity to halt a three-game losing streak.
While Leeds still harbor hopes for promotion, their fate on the final day lies beyond their control. Ipswich Town merely requires a draw against relegated Huddersfield Town to secure their promotion spot, but Leeds remains determined to claim a victory in front of their home supporters.
Yet, if not for one significant statistic, Southampton might have already secured their place in the Premier League.
Adam Armstrong ranks lowest in the Championship for concerning statistic.
This particular statistic pertains to 27-year-old Adam Armstrong.
After his £15 million transfer to the south coast club in the summer of 2021, Armstrong struggled to replicate his previous scoring prowess upon stepping up to the Premier League.
Before this season, Armstrong had netted only five goals for Southampton, as per Transfermarkt records.
However, this season, the forward has elevated his game, tallying 20 league goals and 13 assists in the Championship. While flourishing under Martin’s guidance and adapting well to the wide role assigned by his manager, it’s arguable that this level of performance is his norm.
Coming from Blackburn Rovers, Armstrong bagged 28 goals and five assists in the Championship in the 2020/21 season, which prompted Southampton’s initial interest.
A concerning aspect of Armstrong’s performance is his historic inefficiency in converting chances, despite his prolific scoring record in the EFL.
While Armstrong serves as Southampton’s primary goal source this season and stands as the league’s second-highest scorer, the fact remains that he ranks notably poorly in one regard.
Specifically, Armstrong tops the list for big chances missed in the Championship this season, with an alarming total of 28, according to Fotmob.
For perspective, Coventry City’s Haji Wright sits second in this category but trails Armstrong by a significant margin, having missed 18 big chances.
Armstrong’s finishing poses a concern heading into the play-offs.
Critiquing the finishing of a player who has contributed to nearly a quarter of Southampton’s league goals this season may appear harsh. However, this statistic likely played a significant role in Armstrong’s struggles to adapt to the Premier League.
In the Championship, particularly for a team positioned near the top, opportunities tend to be more plentiful compared to the top flight. Armstrong could expect around five decent chances per game in the second tier, whereas in the Premier League, such opportunities may be limited to just one crucial chance, demanding precision.
Despite Southampton’s prolific goal-scoring record of 85 goals in 45 games this season, they have occasionally faltered in terms of clinicality. While they have enjoyed some big wins, including five-goal hauls against Huddersfield and Swansea City, as well as four-goal outings against Blackburn, Norwich City, and Sheffield Wednesday, they have struggled to convert chances consistently.
This lack of clinical finishing was evident in their recent defeat to Cardiff City, where Southampton squandered five significant chances according to Sofascore. They also failed to find the net in matches against Blackburn and suffered a heavy 5-0 defeat at the hands of Leicester City.
With the upcoming play-offs expected to be tense and tightly contested affairs, chances are likely to be scarce. Southampton will need Armstrong and his teammates to defy this trend and demonstrate clinical finishing when opportunities arise.