Could the Red Sox emerge as unexpected contenders in 2024?
Friday night in Anaheim presented a rollercoaster of emotions for Boston Red Sox supporters. Initially securing a 5-1 advantage, the team stumbled with two glaring errors, promptly followed by a game-tying grand slam. Despite regaining the lead twice, the 8-6 victory over the Los Angeles Angels, marking their fifth consecutive win, was bittersweet. Trevor Story, pivotal in both defense and offense, suffered a significant injury while diving for a ball, casting a shadow over the triumph.
Story’s departure, expected to be prolonged, poses a challenge for the team. Nevertheless, with a current record of 6-2, on par with the New York Yankees, there’s potential for a notable turnaround. Can this early success translate into a substantial resurgence for the franchise, despite a season where competitiveness wasn’t anticipated by ownership? Here’s an analysis of what has transpired and its implications moving forward.
The Red Sox have effective pitching capabilities.
Heading into the season, there were uncertainties surrounding nearly every pitcher in the starting rotation. Brayan Bello, despite recent success, struggled towards the end of the previous season. Nick Pivetta had shown flashes of brilliance but had a history of inconsistency. Meanwhile, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, and Tanner Houck, all relatively young, were still looking to establish themselves as reliable starters at the major league level.
Surprisingly, the performance of the pitching staff has been outstanding thus far, with the exception of Bello, who was considered the most reliable pitcher. The Red Sox starters currently lead the league in several key pitching metrics, including ERA, FIP, strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), and walks per nine innings (BB/9). The new pitching coach, Andrew Bailey, has emphasized the use of off-speed pitches, and this approach seems to be paying off.
While it may be unrealistic to expect the Red Sox to maintain this level of dominance for the entire season, they have demonstrated that their pitching is capable of supporting the team, dispelling concerns that the offense would have to compensate for lackluster pitching. Although it’s still early days and they have only faced teams from the AL West, it’s evident that the changes implemented in their pitching strategy are yielding positive results.
Jarren Duran is a standout player.
Imagine if you heard that a player was boasting a .944 OPS/179 OPS+ after just eight games, had stolen an MLB-leading six bases, and smashed his first home run of the season to put his team in the lead in the eighth inning. You’d probably think, “That’s Ronald Acuña Jr. being his MVP self again,” right?
Well, surprise, surprise! That stellar performance actually belongs to Jarren Duran, who recently made his first Opening Day start in the majors despite having played parts of four seasons. While Duran’s breakout began last summer, a toe injury halted his progress in mid-August. However, Duran isn’t just replicating his success from 2023; he’s taking his game to new heights.
The surge in stolen bases is particularly exciting. While Duran’s incredible speed was evident (96th percentile sprint speed in 2023), his ability to compete for a stolen base title was uncertain, with 24 steals in 102 games last year. However, his current pace suggests he could indeed vie for that crown. Moreover, Duran’s presence on the bases transforms the game for opponents, as his speed and aggressive baserunning often lead to errors and mental lapses, providing the Red Sox with a potent weapon they haven’t had in years.
The rookies in Boston aren’t pulling their weight.
A crucial aspect of this season for Boston was how their least experienced position players would fare in their first opportunities as genuine big league starters. Specifically, Enmanuel Valdez, Cedanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu were all slated to make the team out of spring training and given the chance to prove themselves as Red Sox starters.
Though it’s still early, the initial results have been disheartening. Among the three, Rafaela has shown the most promise, particularly with his defensive skills showcased in the series against the Oakland Athletics. However, despite flashes of brilliance, such as Rafaela’s strong performance in center field, he has struggled to get on base consistently. Valdez managed to hit a powerful home run against the Seattle Mariners but has otherwise struggled both offensively and defensively. Abreu, on the other hand, has yet to find his hitting form in either Spring Training or the regular season.
In past seasons, the Red Sox benefited from having sufficient veteran talent, enabling their rookies to gain valuable experience. This scenario is exemplified by Dustin Pedroia’s journey in 2007, where he struggled initially but eventually emerged as a key player on a World Series-winning team. However, due to the team’s reluctance to invest in veteran additions to the roster, the pressure now falls on these young players to demonstrate their ability to handle the responsibility, especially if Story’s absence is prolonged.
Trevor Story’s injury presents the ultimate challenge.
The injury to Trevor Story poses a significant challenge for the Red Sox, potentially jeopardizing the positive momentum they’ve gained in their first eight games. It’s not just about losing a key player; Story’s experience and resilience added a unique element to the team.
Despite past scenarios where the Red Sox would have swiftly addressed such setbacks, financial constraints now limit their options for securing a suitable replacement. This situation calls for unexpected heroes to emerge, whether it’s Pablo Reyes stepping up, Vaughn Grissom filling in upon his return, Cedanne Rafaela adapting to different positions, or David Hamilton seizing his next opportunity.
Unfortunately, the uncertainty surrounding Story’s injury threatens to undermine the promising start to the season, reminding fans of the inherent instability of the team’s current setup.